Management decisions in rapidly changing conditions of the economy due to the high degree of uncertainty. On the one hand, it is the uncertainty of the external environment, which includes the objective of economic, social and political conditions under which the economic activities of enterprises and to which they must adapt dynamics. On the other hand, the internal environment of the enterprise, the specifics of its activities, multivariate channeling financial resources investments involve uncertainties. Uncertainty at some point this is the probability of events by positive or negative scenario for the company in the future. Adverse scenario assumes a deviation of actual results from the activity of the enterprise target. In studying and overcoming uncertainty arises the concept of risk.
Differences between the concepts of uncertainty and risk in the decision-making model guidance are as follows: the situation of uncertainty is characterized by the absence of the head of the previous experience of making decisions in such situations and, accordingly, the lack of opportunity to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes of a situation. On the other hand, the risk situation is characterized by the presence of the head of the previous experience with these or similar situations.
As the sources of risk in the management of the enterprise should be considered potentially existing events, which may have an impact on the course of implementation of management decisions.
The main sources of risk are:
- Accidents associated with the operation of the production and socio-economic processes, both at the enterprise and outside of it;
- Natural phenomena, which could affect the results of operations, lead to unplanned expenses, at worst – bankruptcy;
- insufficient knowledge about the processes and phenomena that are subject to control in the enterprise, which leads to a decrease in the validity and feasibility of generated plans and goals;
- The duration of the operating cycle, the degree of remoteness of the moment of reaching the goal in time, because over time increases the possibility of manifestation of the above risk factors, as well as reducing the relevance of plans and goals.
Risk measurement is carried out by various methods, the key of which are methods of economic statistics, expert techniques, analog techniques, and computational and analytical methods and simulation.
The methods involve the use of economic statistics as a ratio measurement instruments statistical indicators of risk – the average expected value for the oscillation (variability) possible result, dispersion, standard deviation, the coefficient of variation. In general, the methods of economic statistics have proven themselves on the positive side in the analysis of risk, they are the basis for the chronological and situational comparison of economic conditions and can serve as a basis for making tactical and strategic decisions on risk management.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of applied risk optimization mechanisms implemented by comparison is existing or predicted risk situation of the company with the original. In the event of significant deviations from the expected results obtained need to review the risk management policies applied in the framework of the current financial strategy of the company to obtain acceptable results. Well-formed risk management policy is the key to successful long-term goals of an economic entity and the stability of its financial status in an uncertain internal and external environment.